NAIROBI, Kenya — Kenya faces renewed fuel price vulnerability after escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz triggered a global oil price spike, with Brent crude climbing above $110 per barrel during early Monday trading in Asia.
The surge followed threats by United States President Donald Trump, warning Iran that he would target critical infrastructure if the key shipping route remains closed, intensifying fears of prolonged global supply disruption.
Strategic Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman handling roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, ranks among the world’s most strategically critical corridors.
Disruptions generate immediate ripple effects across international markets, elevating fuel costs and inflation risks—particularly for oil-importing economies like Kenya.
Tehran has threatened to attack vessels using the strait in retaliation for US and Israeli airstrikes, compounding supply chain uncertainty.
Domestic Price Pressure
The developments have sparked concern that Kenyan fuel prices could rise in the coming days, particularly ahead of the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) monthly review scheduled for April 14.
Kenya’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products ensures global price shifts transmit quickly to domestic markets through EPRA’s pricing formula. Tensions have already disrupted shipping routes and elevated tanker insurance costs, further compounding landed fuel expenses for importers.
Government Reassurance
Despite mounting uncertainty, the Kenyan government has moved to reassure citizens that mitigation measures are in place.
President William Ruto has previously emphasised administration’s commitment to stabilising fuel prices and cracking down on substandard fuel imports exploiting market volatility.
National Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi reiterated that the government is monitoring international trends and will intervene to protect the economy from external shocks.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi assured adequate fuel reserves and intact supply chains despite Gulf tensions.
Reserve Vulnerability
However, official estimates indicate fuel reserves stand at approximately 16 days—suggesting stocks could deplete theoretically around the time of the next EPRA review. This timeline raises questions about the sustainability of supply buffers if Hormuz disruptions extend.
Trump told Fox News there was a “good chance” of Monday agreement, but simultaneously threatened to consider “blowing everything up and taking over the oil” if negotiations fail—rhetoric that sustains market volatility regardless of diplomatic outcomes.
