NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenya is headed for an erratic short rains season, with the Meteorological Department warning that most regions will experience depressed rainfall between October and December.
The forecast highlights prolonged dry spells, uneven distribution of rainfall, and occasional storms, raising concerns over food production and water supply in vulnerable counties.
According to the outlook, the Northeastern region, Southeastern lowlands, and coastal strip are expected to record below-average rainfall.
The South and Central Rift Valley, Nairobi, and parts of Kajiado, Marsabit, and Samburu are likely to receive near to below-average amounts.
However, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and sections of Northwestern Kenya could see near to above-average rainfall, offering some relief to farmers.
Charles Mugah, a senior meteorologist, said the outlook is influenced by a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is expected to persist until November.
“A negative IOD typically brings drier than normal conditions over East Africa, potentially suppressing rainfall during the short rains,” he explained.
The World Meteorological Organisation has also projected a 55 per cent chance of La Niña developing between September and November, increasing to 60 per cent in the October–December period.
County-Level Impact
- Western Kenya: Kisii, Nyamira, Kakamega, Bungoma, and Uasin Gishu may get near to slightly above-average rains, though storms are likely.
- Lake Region: Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, and Migori could face near to slightly below-average rainfall, while northern Busia may receive more.
- Rift Valley: Nakuru, Narok, and parts of Baringo are expected to see poor distribution and near to below-average rainfall.
- Northern Kenya: Turkana and western Samburu may record slightly above-average rainfall but with prolonged dry spells.
- Central Kenya: Nairobi, Kiambu, Nyeri, Murang’a, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi are forecast to experience near to below-average rainfall.
- Eastern and Coastal Counties: Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Tana River, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, and the Coast are likely to face below-average rains and extended dry conditions.
Weekly Outlook (Sept 5–10)
The department also issued a short-term advisory warning of moderate to heavy rainfall in western and Rift Valley counties, including Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, and Nakuru.
Nairobi and surrounding counties will experience afternoon showers, while Northeastern and Southeastern lowlands remain dry.
Nighttime temperatures are expected to drop sharply in central and western highlands, with Nairobi, Nyeri, and Nyandarua recording dips of up to 5°C. Strong southerly winds are forecast in coastal, northeastern, and northwestern regions.
Residents have been urged to prepare for flooding, thunderstorms, cold nights, and risks from high winds, especially in vulnerable areas.
