NAIROBI, Kenya — Senior Counsel Nelson Havi has argued that President William Ruto faces a difficult path to re-election in 2027 without substantial backing from voters in the Mt Kenya region.
In a post published on X, formerly Twitter, Havi said leaders from the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), whom he referred to as part of the “Broad-Based Government”, were underestimating the political influence of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
According to Havi, Gachagua has demonstrated considerable support among Kikuyu voters, citing the outcome of a recent by-election in Ol Kalou as evidence of the former deputy president’s influence in the region.
“UDA and ODM leaders in the Broad-Based Government are getting it wrong. HE Rigathi Gachagua is clear that he has the overwhelming support of Kikuyu voters,” Havi wrote.
He argued that dismissing Gachagua’s political strength based on electoral performance in other parts of the country would be a strategic mistake.
“Underrating that proven fact with reference to defeats in North Eastern, Nyanza and Western Kenya is foolhardy.”
Havi further contended that President Ruto would struggle to secure another term without a significant share of the Mt Kenya vote, which played a pivotal role in the Kenya Kwanza coalition’s victory in the 2022 General Election.
“The fact is that without 8 million solid votes which he previously had or even half of it, President William Ruto cannot be re-elected.”
He also criticised the government’s handling of recent events in Ol Kalou, alleging that the use of force against members of the public had further complicated the President’s political prospects.
In addition, Havi singled out Aden Duale and other government advisers, claiming their political counsel could ultimately weaken President Ruto’s re-election campaign.
“CS Aden Duale and all those misadvising the President to chest thump will be his biggest downfall.”
Havi’s remarks come amid heightened political activity and growing debate over shifting alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election. Leaders from both government and opposition camps have increasingly focused on regional voting patterns as parties position themselves for the next presidential contest.
The comments also follow recent public exchanges over the political significance of the Mt Kenya region, with several leaders offering differing assessments of who commands the area’s electoral support.