The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning over the likely return of El Niño, saying the climate phenomenon could emerge within the next few months and trigger a surge in extreme weather events across different parts of the world.
In its latest Update released from Geneva, the United Nations weather agency said there is an 80 per cent chance that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026.
The likelihood of the phenomenon continuing through November is estimated at more than 90 per cent.
El Niño, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, is known to alter global weather patterns. It is often associated with higher global temperatures, increased flooding in some regions, and drought and heatwaves in others.
For Kenya and much of the Horn of Africa, La Niña is typically linked to above-normal rainfall and an elevated risk of flooding, particularly during the latter part of the year.
According to the WMO, warming ocean waters in the tropical Pacific are driving the development of the phenomenon, with forecasts pointing to above-average temperatures across most parts of the world during the June-August period.
“Warm ocean waters are fueling the development of El Niño which typically increases global temperatures and drives more extreme weather and rainfall patterns, and above-average temperatures are forecast nearly everywhere for June to August,” WMO said in a statement.
The agency said measurements taken between late April and mid-May showed sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific approaching El Niño thresholds. Scientists also detected exceptionally warm subsurface waters, with temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, providing a large reserve of heat capable of sustaining further warming at the ocean surface.
At the same time, atmospheric indicators linked to El Niño, including the Southern Oscillation Index, are showing signs consistent with the climate pattern’s emergence.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments worldwide to act on the warning, cautioning that El Niño would amplify the effects of climate change already being experienced across the globe.
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 per cent certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” Guterres said.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”
He called on countries to accelerate climate action through faster adoption of renewable energy, improved protection for vulnerable communities and expanded investment in early warning systems.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said governments and communities should begin preparing for the possibility of a moderate to strong El Niño event.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Saulo said.
Saulo noted that the 2023-24 El Niño episode ranked among the five strongest on record and played a significant role in driving record global temperatures in 2024.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors,” Saulo said.
The agency stressed that seasonal forecasts and early warning systems would be critical in helping countries minimise losses and safeguard lives and livelihoods.
Globally, El Niño is typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. In contrast, regions such as Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia often experience below-average rainfall during El Niño years.
With forecasts increasingly pointing to a strengthening event, the WMO said governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, health, energy and water management should begin preparations now to reduce potential impacts in the months ahead.
 says there is over a 90 percent chance El Niño will persist from June through November.){kind=link}