NAIROBI, Kenya – Artificial intelligence could enable developing countries such as Kenya to achieve in a decade what might otherwise have taken a century, according to the World Bank, but the opportunity depends on how quickly governments close gaps in electricity, internet connectivity, skills and institutional capacity.
The potential boost comes as developing economies record their weakest average growth in three decades, increasing the urgency for countries to find new ways of improving productivity and expanding access to essential services.
“AI has thrown developing economies a lifeline, and they should seize it,” said Indermit Gill, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group.
According to the World Bank, the biggest opportunity for developing economies lies not necessarily in replacing workers with machines, but in using AI to make existing workers more productive.
The lender estimates that about 16.2 per cent of jobs in developing economies could receive a meaningful productivity boost from AI, compared with 18.7 per cent in high-income countries.
At the same time, workers in richer economies face a significantly higher risk of automation. About 14.2 per cent of existing jobs in high-income countries are exposed to automation by generative AI, compared with just 4.5 per cent in low- and middle-income economies.
The figures suggest that countries such as Kenya could initially gain more from AI-assisted productivity than from widespread job replacement.
AI could expand access to critical services
For developing countries, AI could help address shortages of skilled professionals and limited institutional capacity by expanding access to expertise and services.
In healthcare, AI tools could assist doctors in diagnosing patients and identifying potential health risks.
In agriculture, farmers could use AI-powered systems to make better decisions about crops, weather conditions, pests and farm inputs.
Businesses could use AI to automate routine tasks, analyse data, improve customer service and increase productivity without having to build large specialist teams.
Governments could also deploy AI in areas such as tax collection, social protection, disaster response, healthcare and education.
For countries with limited resources, the ability to extend the reach of existing professionals and public institutions could have a significant economic impact.
Instead of waiting decades to build enough specialists and institutions to meet growing demand, AI could allow countries to increase the productivity and reach of the resources they already have.
Infrastructure remains the biggest obstacle
The opportunity, however, is not automatic.
The World Bank warns that many developing countries still lack the basic infrastructure required to deploy AI effectively.
Reliable electricity, internet connectivity, computing capacity and access to local data remain limited in many parts of the developing world.
Skills shortages and weak institutions could further restrict adoption.
The infrastructure gap is particularly visible in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nearly one-third of rural schools lack reliable electricity, while more than two-thirds do not have dependable internet access.
These limitations create a fundamental challenge.
AI systems may be increasingly accessible through cloud platforms and relatively inexpensive software, but they still require electricity, connectivity, devices, data and people capable of using and managing them.
Without those foundations, the benefits of AI are likely to remain concentrated in better-connected cities, companies and households.
Kenya could focus on practical AI applications
For Kenya, the World Bank’s recommendations suggest that the country does not necessarily need to compete immediately with nations developing the world’s most advanced AI systems.
Instead, Kenya could prioritise practical applications of relatively low-cost AI that address existing development challenges.
Agriculture could be one of the most important areas.
AI tools could help farmers interpret weather information, identify crop diseases, improve planting decisions and use agricultural inputs more efficiently.
In healthcare, AI could help extend the capacity of doctors and other medical professionals, particularly in areas where access to specialists is limited.
Small businesses could use AI to improve bookkeeping, marketing, customer support, market research and other functions that traditionally require additional employees or expensive professional services.
The public sector could similarly use AI to improve administrative processes and make government services more accessible.
The objective would not necessarily be to replace workers, but to help existing workers and institutions do more with limited resources.
Three stages to AI development
The World Bank recommends a three-stage approach for developing economies.
The first stage is to adopt existing AI tools rather than attempting to develop advanced systems from scratch.
The second is to adapt those tools to local needs, ensuring that AI applications reflect local languages, economic conditions, institutions and social realities.
The third stage is to advance towards developing frontier AI capabilities as countries build the necessary skills, infrastructure and technological capacity.
For Kenya and other developing economies, the first two stages could offer the quickest gains.
Businesses and governments do not need to wait for locally developed frontier AI models before beginning to benefit from the technology.
They can instead use existing systems to solve practical problems while simultaneously investing in the infrastructure and skills needed for more advanced applications.
Measuring whether AI actually works
The World Bank also emphasises the importance of evidence.
Governments and businesses need stronger systems for determining which AI initiatives actually produce measurable improvements.
That means moving beyond counting the number of AI projects launched and instead measuring outcomes such as reduced costs, improved productivity, faster service delivery, higher agricultural yields, better learning outcomes or increased tax collection.
The approach could help prevent governments and companies from spending heavily on AI projects that generate publicity but deliver limited practical value.
The lender also recommends policies that allow new firms to attract investment and scale successful innovations.
This could be particularly important for Kenya’s technology sector, where startups and smaller companies could develop AI solutions tailored to local and regional markets.
The risk of a wider digital divide
The World Bank warns that AI could also deepen existing inequalities if countries fail to close infrastructure and skills gaps.
Businesses with reliable electricity, fast internet, skilled workers and access to computing resources will be able to adopt AI much faster than firms lacking those foundations.
The same divide could emerge between urban and rural communities, large companies and small enterprises, and wealthier and poorer households.
Without deliberate investment, AI could therefore create a situation where the countries and communities that already have greater technological capacity capture most of the benefits.
Closing the infrastructure gap is consequently not simply a technology policy. It is also a development and inequality issue.
Building trust will be critical
Governments will also have to address the risks associated with AI.
The World Bank highlights concerns around bias, privacy, safety and misuse.
For AI to become widely used in public services, citizens need confidence that their personal information will be protected and that automated systems will not unfairly discriminate against particular groups.
Human oversight will remain important, particularly when AI is used in sensitive areas such as healthcare, education, taxation, social protection and law enforcement.
Strong institutions and clear rules will therefore be just as important as access to technology.
A development opportunity for the next decade
The World Bank’s assessment presents AI as a potential shortcut for countries that have historically faced constraints in building human and institutional capacity.
Developing countries may not need to follow the same long development path taken by today’s advanced economies.
If governments can rapidly expand electricity access, improve internet connectivity, develop digital and AI skills, strengthen institutions and encourage responsible innovation, AI could allow countries to increase productivity at a much faster pace.
For Kenya, the immediate opportunity may lie in using AI to solve problems that already exist rather than treating the technology as an end in itself.
The country could apply AI to agriculture, healthcare, education, public administration, taxation, financial services and small-business productivity while continuing to build the infrastructure needed for more sophisticated applications.
The World Bank’s central message is therefore both an opportunity and a warning.
AI could compress decades of development into a much shorter period, but only countries that build the foundations for adoption will be positioned to capture those gains.
For developing states, the race is not simply to build the most advanced AI.
It is to ensure that electricity, connectivity, skills, institutions and public trust are strong enough for AI to translate into better services,
