NAIROBI, Kenya — Kenyan farmers could face fertiliser supply disruptions and rising costs as escalating tensions in the Middle East affect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global trade route.
A new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warns that Kenya is particularly exposed to supply chain shocks due to its reliance on fertiliser imports from the Persian Gulf.
According to the report, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade Development, about 26pc of Kenya’s fertiliser imports in 2024 were shipped by sea from the Gulf region.
The findings raise concerns that any prolonged disruption in shipping could increase the cost of agricultural inputs, with knock-on effects on food prices and household spending.
“Higher energy, fertiliser and transport costs – including freight rates, bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums – may increase food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable,” the report states.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, handling roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade alongside significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilisers.
UNCTAD notes that ongoing military escalation in the region has already disrupted shipping flows through the narrow passage, increasing uncertainty for global supply chains.
Regionally, several African countries face even higher exposure than Kenya. Sudan sources 54pc of its fertiliser imports from the Gulf, while Tanzania (31pc), Somalia (30pc) and Mozambique (22 per cent) also rely heavily on the route.
Globally, countries such as Sri Lanka (36 per cent), Pakistan (27 per cent), Thailand (27 per cent) and New Zealand (26 per cent) face similar vulnerabilities.
UNCTAD warns that heavy dependence on imported agricultural inputs, combined with high debt levels and limited infrastructure, leaves developing economies exposed to sudden price shocks.
The report draws parallels with previous global disruptions, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine War, which triggered widespread increases in energy, transport, and food costs.
“The current shock comes at a time when many developing economies struggle to service their debt, face a tightening of fiscal space and limited capacity to absorb new price shocks,” the report notes.
