NAIROBI, Kenya- Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister of Kenya, is up against formidable competition as he vies for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship.
Despite securing backing from the East African Community (EAC) just days ago, the race has taken a dramatic turn, with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) throwing its weight behind Djibouti’s candidate, Mahmoud Ali Youssef.
The diplomatic maneuvers are already heating up, even with more than four months left before the crucial vote.
The endorsement of Youssef by the OIC, announced at a recent meeting of its foreign ministers in Cameroon, adds a significant layer of complexity to Odinga’s campaign.
The OIC’s decision could be a game-changer, given that 27 of its member states are African, potentially splitting the vote and weakening Raila’s support base.
Some observers believe this could give Djibouti a considerable edge, although the impact of this endorsement remains to be fully seen.
While Algeria, Egypt, Libya, and Morocco—all OIC members—have already fielded candidates for the AUC deputy chairperson position, their strategies may influence how other regions align in the upcoming vote.
Meanwhile, Raila still enjoys support from certain OIC countries, including Uganda, Nigeria, and Guinea-Bissau. However, the complex interplay of regional alliances and individual country interests suggests a challenging road ahead for the Kenyan candidate.
The upcoming vote is likely to be heavily influenced by the regional and linguistic divides within the African Union (AU).
According to Ahmed Hashi, a governance and policy expert, Raila could face an uphill battle due to the AU’s historical preference for Francophone candidates.
Hashi predicts that Djibouti’s candidate might secure a landslide victory, mirroring past outcomes where French-speaking countries backed one of their own.
This divide could play out again, with countries from Central Africa and the Sahel region rallying behind Youssef.
The stakes are further heightened by the involvement of candidates from Madagascar and Mauritius, who are also contesting the AUC chairmanship.
Their participation complicates the race, especially with Madagascar being part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
As a result, the vote could hinge on how the Francophone and Anglophone blocs, as well as other regional alliances, choose to position themselves in the coming months.
For Raila Odinga, navigating the intricate web of diplomatic relationships will be crucial in the lead-up to the election.
Despite support from key EAC leaders like Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu, the absence of other influential figures such as Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at his campaign launch raises questions about the solidity of his backing.
Moreover, Kenya’s strained relations with some neighboring countries could further complicate his bid.
Experts like Edward Kakumu, an international relations specialist, suggest that Kenya must now deploy its best diplomatic strategies to secure votes.
This might involve forging new alliances, leveraging trade relationships, and ensuring that Raila’s campaign resonates with the broader AU membership.
