NAIROBI, Kenya- The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the upcoming Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, according to a new survey showing the party opening a commanding lead over rivals UDA and Jubilee ahead of the July 16 mini-poll.
The latest poll by Mizani Africa indicates that DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Waweru, popularly known as Ngotho, enjoys the support of 61.4 per cent among likely voters, placing him far ahead of United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Samuel Muchina, who garnered 18 per cent.
Martin Wambugu alias “Tinga Tinga” of the People’s Liberation Party (PLP) trails at 6.3 per cent.
The survey further shows DCP dominating party popularity in the constituency with 51.8 per cent support, compared to UDA’s 19.1 per cent, while Jubilee Party, which previously held the seat, has dropped to 6.5 per cent.
Political analysts say the numbers point to a major political shift in Nyandarua County and the wider Mt Kenya region as former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP gains momentum ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The Ol Kalou seat fell vacant following the death of area MP David Njuguna Kiaraho, who had been elected on a Jubilee Party ticket but maintained close ties with President William Ruto’s administration.
Initially, political observers expected UDA to inherit the constituency’s support base because Kiaraho cooperated with the Kenya Kwanza government.
However, the latest findings suggest the race has evolved beyond legacy politics and is increasingly being shaped by fresh political alignments and growing anti-establishment sentiment in the region.
“At the moment, DCP appears to have successfully consolidated both party momentum and candidate preference, giving Sammy Ngotho a significant structural advantage heading into the by-election,” Mizani Africa stated in its analysis.
The report says UDA now faces the difficult challenge of overcoming what it termed as a widening “perception gap” despite its access to state power and government influence.
Meanwhile, Jubilee’s dramatic decline to single-digit support signals the collapse of what was once one of the party’s strongest footholds in Mt Kenya politics.
“Jubilee’s collapse to single digits raises serious questions about whether the party can still compete meaningfully in the Mt Kenya political battlefield,” the survey noted.
The by-election has attracted intense national attention and is widely viewed as an early political supremacy contest between President William Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
Ngotho has recently held massive rallies and “meet the People” tours across Ol Kalou alongside Nyandarua Senator John Methu and other senior DCP leaders, who have expressed confidence that the party will defeat UDA by a landslide.
Political analysts say that unless there is a major shift in voter turnout or late-stage political consolidation, DCP currently heads into the July 16 by-election as the overwhelming favourite.
