NAIROBI, Kenya — The Kenya Red Cross has warned of an elevated risk of floods, landslides, displacement and disease outbreaks during the October-November-December (OND) rainy season, with 46 of Kenya’s 47 counties expected to receive above-normal rainfall.
Kenya Red Cross Secretary General Idris Ahmed said the country was already experiencing effects associated with the El Niño phenomenon, with rainfall expected to intensify during the peak of the OND season.
Speaking during a local television interview on Thursday, September 3, 2026, Ahmed warned that the anticipated rainfall could have a greater impact than previous flooding episodes, including the devastating 2024 floods that displaced thousands of people and caused widespread damage.
“We’re looking at something much bigger in scale,” Ahmed said.
He urged Kenyans to take the rainfall projections seriously and prepare for possible flooding and other weather-related emergencies.
Central Highlands face landslide risk
Ahmed identified the Central Highlands and other highland areas as some of the regions of greatest concern because of the potential for rapid ground saturation.
He said prolonged or intense rainfall could saturate soils and groundwater, increasing the likelihood of landslides, particularly in the Central Highlands and parts of the Rift Valley.
The Red Cross is also monitoring major river basins where increased rainfall could cause rivers to overflow and force communities living along waterways to evacuate.
Among the areas identified as potentially vulnerable are the Tana River Basin, including parts of Garissa, Tana River and Kilifi counties.
Ahmed also cited the Galana and Lake Victoria basins as areas requiring close monitoring.
Rising lake levels are another concern as heavy rainfall continues, particularly for communities living near shorelines and other flood-prone areas.
Nairobi, Mombasa face flash-flood threat
Urban areas including Nairobi and Mombasa could also face significant flash-flood risks, Ahmed said.
He explained that extensive concrete and other impermeable surfaces in cities reduce the amount of rainwater that can infiltrate the ground.
During intense storms, large volumes of water can therefore accumulate rapidly as surface runoff, overwhelming drainage systems and flooding roads, homes and businesses.
Parts of northeastern Kenya are also expected to face flash-flood risks, particularly where heavy rainfall follows prolonged dry conditions.
Ahmed warned that sudden flooding in such areas could sweep away people and property and result in significant displacement.
Humanitarian agencies prepare for health risks
The anticipated rainfall could also create conditions favourable for outbreaks of water- and sanitation-related diseases.
Ahmed said the humanitarian sector was preparing for possible cases of cholera, diarrhoeal diseases and livestock-related illnesses as flooding affects communities, sanitation systems and access to clean water.
The Kenya Red Cross is already planning for the potential humanitarian consequences of the expected rainfall, including the possibility of large-scale displacement and increased demand for emergency assistance.
“From a humanitarian perspective, in short, we are planning for big problems, and we’re anticipating big problems,” Ahmed said.
Flooding can also disrupt access to healthcare, damage infrastructure and increase the risk of contamination of water sources, creating additional challenges for affected communities.
Kenyans urged to prepare
Ahmed urged Kenyans to take the rainfall projections seriously as the country approaches the peak of the OND rainy season.
Residents in flood- and landslide-prone areas have been advised to remain alert to weather warnings and avoid crossing swollen rivers or walking and driving through floodwaters.
Communities living near rivers, lakes and steep slopes face particular risks if rainfall exceeds normal levels.
