BERLIN/Stuttgart – To meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, governments and companies worldwide are pledging to reach net zero by cutting emissions and offsetting the rest, aiming to keep global temperature below 2°C. A key instrument in this effort is carbon sequestration through land-based measures, like reforestation and afforestation.
By 2060, up to one billion hectares of land—nearly the size of China or the United States—would be required to realise those net-zero climate pledges.
“Net Zero & Land Rights,” a new publication by the Robert Bosch Stiftung and TMG Research released this week, warns that these land-based carbon removal strategies could trigger a new global land rush, exacerbate existing land-use conflicts, threaten food security, displace local communities, undermine Indigenous Peoples’ rights, and amplify inequality. In light of this, the report’s authors call for a more equitable approach to land rights within climate policy.
This report comes just weeks before climate negotiators reconvene in Bonn in June at the UN Climate Change Conference under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), known as SB62. There, governments are expected to make further progress on the implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon markets.
Land Rights as the Foundation for Just Climate Action
Indigenous peoples are key players in climate protection: they preserve around 80% of global biodiversity while inhabiting just 22% of it. Moreover, while Indigenous Peoples and local communities claim customary rights to approximately 65% of the world’s land, only 10% is officially recognised as formally owned.
The publication critically illustrates the role of voluntary carbon markets, which are meant to direct investments into climate action projects.
It reveals that land-based carbon offset projects are rapidly expanding across vast areas of land, particularly across the African continent, where land tenure is often insecure. From the Congo Basin to Niger, local communities are facing growing pressure from carbon offset projects that lack proper safeguards. These developments are unfolding even as many of these communities have no formal recognition of their land.
“Climate protection must not come at the cost of social justice,” emphasises Dr. Tabea Lissner, Head of the Climate Change Team at the Robert Bosch Stiftung. “If we are serious about achieving net-zero targets, we must simultaneously protect the land rights of people in the Global South. Otherwise, climate measures will lose their legitimacy.”
Dr. Jes Weigelt, Managing Director of TMG Think Tank for Sustainability, warns that we are seeing the return of a land rush—this time driven by carbon markets and climate targets.
“But this can’t be how we build climate resilience. Communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis are also key stewards of forests, grasslands, and biodiversity. Securing their land rights is not optional—it is essential for meaningful, just, and lasting climate action,” says Dr. Jes.
Concrete Recommendations for Just Climate Policy
The publication formulates clear political recommendations: it calls for the recognition and protection of legitimate land rights, including those based on traditional and customary systems.
Governments, donors, and carbon market actors are urged to ensure that every project treats Indigenous and local communities as equal partners to forge inclusive climate policies; that projects only proceed after the “free, prior, and informed consent” of local communities; and that gender equality and customary tenure recognition are embedded in all climate-related land use interventions.
The report also calls for the integration of land rights into national climate strategies, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that all countries signatories of the Paris Agreement must submit to the UN by this September. Binding standards for carbon offset projects are needed to prevent land grabbing and ecological harm.
About the publication:
“Net Zero & Land Rights” is a joint publication by the Robert Bosch Foundation and TMG Research. The publication brings together perspectives from science, civil society, and voices from both Europe and the Global South. It analyses the impacts of global climate strategies on land rights, biodiversity, and social justice. You can find the full publication here.
About TMG Research, part of TMG Think Tank for Sustainability
On the other hand, TMG Research is dedicated to driving just and sustainable transitions through action research and advocacy. Committed to a rights-based approach, our programs focus on responsible land governance, food systems transformation in rural and urban settings, and adaptation to climate change.
TMG is headquartered in Berlin, with a team in Nairobi. Their research focuses primarily on the European Union and Africa, including Benin, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, and South Africa.
