NAIROBI, Kenya — Kenya can achieve significant economic and social transformation within a generation if it pursues bold reforms, invests in human capital, controls public debt and tackles corruption, international economic consultant Prof Hiroyuki Hino has said.
Speaking during the launch of the Beyond Vision 2030 National Conversation, Hino challenged Kenyans to set ambitious development targets rather than dismissing Singapore as an unrealistic benchmark.
“Singapore is reachable,” he told Kenyans.
Hino argued that Kenya has the human attributes needed to support rapid economic transformation, pointing to hard work, motivation, discipline and cooperation as qualities that contributed to the economic rise of several Asian economies.
“To sceptics, I would say Kenyans possess personal attributes that can power extraordinary growth. The Asian miracle was driven, in an important part, by the strength of its people: hard work, motivation, discipline, and cooperation,” he said.
Kenya can close key development gaps
Hino acknowledged the significant economic gap between Kenya and Singapore. Singapore’s income per person exceeded $80,000 last year, compared with slightly more than $2,000 in Kenya.
However, he said Kenya could match or surpass Singapore’s current performance in three of four key measures of economic wellbeing by 2063, when Kenya celebrates 100 years of independence.
The measures include childhood nutrition, learning outcomes and access to basic services.
Hino said Kenya could eliminate childhood stunting within a decade through sustained intervention, while closing the learning gap with Singapore would require an annual improvement of about 0.63 per cent.
He also expressed confidence that Kenya could achieve universal access to basic services by 2063, with technological advances potentially accelerating progress in areas such as clean cooking fuel.
Income growth, however, would present a much greater challenge.
Hino calculated that Kenya would need per-capita income to grow by more than 10 per cent annually for 35 years to reach Singapore’s current level.
He therefore urged the country to pursue what he described as a “quantum leap” in economic performance.
“Kenya needs a quantum jump, a quantum leap to a substantially higher growth trajectory. This requires bold and transformative change,” he said.
Flower industry offers a model
Hino pointed to Kenya’s flower industry as an example of how innovation can transform an economic sector.
The industry became globally competitive through the adoption of modern floriculture technologies and improvements in international transportation, he said.
He argued that similar technological and organisational changes should be applied across other sectors of Kenya’s economy.
The economist identified sound fiscal management, infrastructure investment, essential public services and private enterprise as important foundations for sustained growth.
He nevertheless cautioned that these measures would need to be accompanied by stronger reforms if Kenya is to avoid the middle-income trap.
Debt and corruption remain major challenges
Hino urged Kenya to bring public debt under control while maintaining an environment in which private businesses can invest and expand.
He recommended targeting annual per-capita income growth of about 5 per cent. With population growth estimated at 1.5 per cent annually, he said this would require overall GDP growth of approximately 6.5 per cent a year.
Corruption, he said, remains another major obstacle to economic transformation.
“Corruption damages the economy and weakens the social fabric. Curbing corruption would be truly transformative for Kenya,” Hino said.
He called for consistent enforcement of conflict-of-interest laws and wider use of electronic procurement systems, while encouraging citizens to use available platforms to expose corruption and demand accountability.
Human capital at centre of transformation
Hino also placed education and human capital at the centre of Kenya’s long-term development strategy.
He said Kenyan children demonstrate optimism, perseverance and strong social connections but need greater support in developing self-management skills.
He called for reforms to the formal education system so that learning extends beyond academic and cognitive abilities to include skills that improve productivity, entrepreneurship and employment prospects.
Artificial intelligence, he added, would increasingly reshape economies and societies, although its ultimate impact remains uncertain.
Hino urged Kenya to draw on international expertise as it develops its next long-term national development framework.
Tackling inequality and supporting small businesses
The economist identified inequality as another barrier to inclusive growth.
He noted that the poorest 20 per cent of Kenyans receive about 5 per cent of national income, while the richest 20 per cent receive roughly half.
“Narrowing this imbalance would raise the income of ordinary households and bring Kenya closer to the income growth trajectory to Singapore we are looking for,” he said.
Hino called for stronger support for vulnerable households and greater recognition of small informal enterprises.
He argued that informal businesses can grow rapidly and do not necessarily require subsidised government loans, saying privately financed microfinance could help viable enterprises expand.
Vision 2060 conversation
Hino said the national conversation should prioritise childhood learning, support for poor households, micro-business development and the fight against corruption while allowing other ideas to emerge through public participation.
He also linked the development agenda to the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s vision of a Kenya where ordinary citizens enjoy decent living standards and young people have opportunities to pursue their ambitions.
“Raila dreamed of a new Kenya where ordinary citizens enjoy a decent life and look to the future with full hope. His dream, Raila’s dream, was to empower young Kenyans to live their dreams,” he said.
Hino urged President William Ruto to sustain the national conversation and development process while challenging Kenyans to embrace the ambition of transforming the country.
His central message was that Kenya’s development gap with richer economies should not be viewed as permanent, but as a challenge requiring sustained reforms, stronger institutions and a dramatic acceleration in economic growth.
“Singapore is reachable,” Hino said.
