NAIROBI, Kenya — Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the preferred presidential candidate among supporters of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), according to the latest Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey, as the legislator also recorded the fastest growth in national support among opposition figures.
The survey found that 44 per cent of ODM supporters would back Sifuna as the party’s presidential flagbearer in the 2027 General Election, placing him well ahead of other leaders considered in the poll.
Surprisingly, President William Ruto, leader of the rival United Democratic Alliance (UDA), ranked second among ODM supporters with 20 per cent support.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i placed third with nine per cent, while Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka each attracted four per cent support.
Former Chief Justice David Maraga received two per cent, while Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua polled one per cent. Another three per cent supported other candidates, while 13 per cent of ODM supporters remained undecided.
Sifuna posts biggest national gain
The findings also show Sifuna making the largest gains nationally among opposition presidential hopefuls.
According to TIFA, the Nairobi Senator’s support increased from 10 per cent in May 2026 to 15 per cent in June 2026, making him the fastest-rising contender in the latest survey.
The pollster noted that Sifuna has experienced significant growth over the past several months.
“From zero per cent in November 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026, Sifuna is showing steady growth,” TIFA said.
The organisation added that although the opposition vote remains fragmented, Sifuna has positioned himself among the leading opposition contenders through consistent gains in public support.
Ruto maintains lead nationally
Despite Sifuna’s rise, President William Ruto maintained his position as the country’s most preferred presidential candidate with 24 per cent support, unchanged from the previous TIFA survey conducted in May.
TIFA attributed Ruto’s continued lead partly to divisions within the opposition, with support spread among several candidates.
The survey also found that 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided, suggesting a sizeable bloc of voters could still influence the direction of the 2027 presidential race.
Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua register declines
While Sifuna gained ground, several prominent opposition figures recorded declining support.
Kalonzo Musyoka’s support dropped from 25 per cent in November 2025 to 13 per cent in June 2026, while Fred Matiang’i declined from 32 per cent in May 2025 to 14 per cent.
Rigathi Gachagua’s support also fell from nine per cent in May 2026 to seven per cent in the latest poll.
Babu Owino remained largely unchanged at two per cent, having previously reached a peak of eight per cent in November 2025.
Party support bases remain distinct
The survey found strong party loyalty within several political formations.
Among UDA supporters, 84 per cent said they would back President Ruto for re-election.
Within Jubilee Party, 73 per cent identified Fred Matiang’i as their preferred presidential candidate.
Supporters of Wiper demonstrated the highest level of party cohesion, with 90 per cent backing Kalonzo Musyoka.
Among supporters of Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP, Gachagua led with 44 per cent, followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent and Fred Matiang’i at 15 per cent.
TIFA observed that UDA, Wiper and Jubilee supporters exhibited stronger internal unity than ODM supporters, although Sifuna remained the clear favourite within the Orange party.
Survey methodology
The findings are based on face-to-face household interviews conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, involving 2,048 randomly selected Kenyan adults aged 18 years and above across all 47 counties.
TIFA noted that the survey reflects public opinion during the period when interviews were conducted and acknowledged that subsequent political developments may influence voter preferences ahead of the 2027 General Election.