WASHINGTON, D.C.— Global markets are reacting, political tensions are rising, and diplomacy is moving in fast but uncertain motion. That’s the backdrop as the United States and Iran edge closer to what officials describe as a potential breakthrough agreement—though one that is still far from final.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says negotiators now have “a pretty solid thing on the table,” suggesting a deal could be within reach as early as Monday. But even he cautioned that the process remains fragile, describing the talks as “a work in progress.”
The comments come as oil prices dropped sharply and Asian markets rose on Monday, reflecting growing optimism that Washington and Tehran may be inching toward easing one of the world’s most volatile geopolitical standoffs.
A “solid deal” — but not a final one yet
Speaking during a visit to India, Rubio struck a cautiously optimistic tone while also tempering expectations.
“We’re still a work in progress,” he said in Delhi, adding that officials had expected possible progress “last night… maybe today.”
At the centre of the discussions is a reported framework involving a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and continued negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical global energy chokepoint, with nearly 20pc of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passing through it. Any disruption has immediate ripple effects on global energy prices—something markets are already responding to.
Rubio also noted that communication delays with Iran have slowed progress, warning: “I wouldn’t read too much into it.”
Trump’s balancing act and rising political pressure
US President Donald Trump has taken a more contradictory public stance, at once signalling progress while urging caution.
He said negotiators should not “rush into a deal,” even as he previously suggested an agreement was close.
Behind the scenes, the proposal has sparked deep divisions within Trump’s political circle.
Several senior Republican figures have openly criticised the reported framework:
- Senator Ted Cruz called it “a disastrous mistake”
- Senator Roger Wicker warned it could undo recent military gains
- Senator Lindsey Graham questioned whether the conflict’s objectives would be achieved
Trump, however, dismissed critics directly, writing on Truth Social that he does not “listen to the losers.”
“If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one,” he said.
Oil markets react as nuclear tensions remain unresolved
Markets responded quickly to the possibility of easing tensions. Oil prices fell while Asian stock markets climbed on Monday, driven by hopes that a partial agreement could reduce disruption risks in the Middle East.
The reported framework is not a final settlement. Instead, it reportedly leaves several major issues unresolved, including:
- The scale of sanctions relief for Iran
- The release of frozen Iranian assets
- Limits on Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme
The nuclear dimension remains the most sensitive. Reports suggest Iran currently holds around 440kg of uranium enriched up to 60pc purity—just below weapons-grade levels.
Iranian officials maintain their programme is peaceful. President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that Tehran is prepared “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon.”
Meanwhile, regional instability continues to shape negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz has previously been closed amid conflict, contributing to earlier spikes in global oil prices.
As talks continue, the key question remains whether this moment marks a genuine diplomatic turning point—or simply another pause in a long-running geopolitical standoff.
