NAIROBI, Kenya — Milk consumers are facing supply shortages in parts of the country, with some supermarkets and retailers rationing purchases as dry conditions reduce dairy production and processors struggle to maintain adequate supplies.
A spot check at several supermarkets and retail outlets in Nairobi found empty or sparsely stocked shelves, with some retailers limiting the quantity of milk customers can buy amid concerns over declining deliveries.
At some outlets, customers were being limited to as little as one litre of milk from dispensers, while some wholesalers were restricting purchases of packaged milk to fewer than five packets per customer instead of allowing customers to buy full cartons.
Long-life milk was retailing at between Sh54 and Sh65, while the limited fresh milk available was selling at between Sh61 and Sh65 per packet.
At Waithaka Dairy Centre, the price of fresh milk had reportedly risen from Sh70 to Sh80 per litre.
The shortages come as drought and deteriorating pasture conditions affect milk production in several dairy-producing areas.
Milk deliveries to processors decline
Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) Secretary-General Stephen Mutoro has called on the government to take urgent and coordinated measures to restore normal milk supplies and prevent further price increases.
Mutoro cited Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data showing that formal-sector milk intake fell from 88.89 million litres in May 2026 to 84.44 million litres in June.
The June figure was 6.4 per cent lower than the 90.24 million litres recorded during the same month in 2025.
Cumulative formal milk intake between January and June stood at 513.32 million litres, slightly below the 516.34 million litres recorded during the corresponding period last year.
Mutoro attributed part of the decline to worsening conditions facing smallholder dairy farmers, who account for an estimated 80 per cent of Kenya’s milk production.
He called on the Ministry of Agriculture to publish a dairy recovery plan and activate emergency fodder and feed support in counties most affected by dry conditions.
The COFEK official also urged the National Treasury to consider waiving import duty and VAT on key dairy-feed ingredients, including yellow maize and soya, to reduce production costs for farmers.
Farmers report falling milk yields
Dairy farmers are reporting a sharp decline in milk production as pasture dries up and the cost of animal feed rises.
Some farmers say daily yields have fallen from between seven and nine litres to four or five litres per cow.
“Grass has dried and the little nappier grass I have is almost finished. Milk harvest has gone down by almost half and if we don’t get any rains, this could get worse,” said Andrew Mbogo, a dairy farmer in Narumoru, Nyeri County.
Mbogo keeps two dairy cows, which produce about 20 litres of milk a day under favourable conditions.
He sells his milk to a dairy cooperative and relies on the income to service loans.
The dry conditions have also affected pastoral communities, with some livestock keepers moving animals in search of pasture and water.
A pastoralist in Oloitoktok, Kajiado County, said some farmers had moved livestock to ranches in Taita Taveta, where they pay Sh300 per cow per month for access to grazing land and water.
More than half of ASAL counties below average
The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) reported that 52.2 per cent of monitored ASAL counties recorded milk production below the long-term average in July.
The decline was attributed to diminishing pasture and browse, longer distances to water sources, deteriorating livestock body conditions and the depletion of gains made during the previous rainy season.
The figures underline the growing pressure on livestock production as dry conditions persist across several arid and semi-arid counties.
However, industry players say the supply problems may not be explained by reduced production alone.
Processors cite costs and payment delays
Kieni Dairy Products Limited Chief Executive Officer Solomon Maina said high operating costs could be contributing to the reduced availability of pasteurised milk.
According to Maina, rising costs, including fuel expenses, are forcing some processors to reduce the production of pasteurised milk and shift towards higher-value products such as yoghurt, ice cream and cheese.
He also said delayed payments from processors could be encouraging some farmers to sell more milk through the informal market, where prices are reportedly between Sh70 and Sh80 per litre, and payments are made promptly.
“The shortage may not necessarily be caused by farmers because there are places like Nyandarua where it has been raining, but could be attributed to other factors such as working capital and distribution logistics,” Maina said.
He expects milk supplies to begin improving around October, when the short rains are expected to support the recovery of pasture and water supplies.
Kenya Dairy Board says milk remains available
The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) has, however, reassured consumers that milk remains available in the market despite what it described as temporary supply constraints in some parts of the country.
KDB Managing Director Dr William Maritim said formal milk deliveries to processors declined by 3.7 per cent, from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July 2026.
The board is still compiling formal milk intake data for August, although preliminary indications point to a further decline in deliveries because of prevailing seasonal conditions.
Maritim said recent market surveillance had identified varying levels of supply constraints across the country, including low stock levels, reduced availability of some brands and pack sizes, and delayed replenishment at some retail outlets.
“Pasteurised milk has generally been more affected, while long-life milk, including ESL and UHT, remains comparatively more available,” Maritim said.
He added that retail milk prices remained generally stable, although some upward movement had been recorded in areas experiencing supply constraints.
Dry and cold conditions blamed
According to the Kenya Dairy Board, the current situation is largely associated with seasonal factors, particularly the prevailing dry and cold conditions affecting key milk-producing areas.
The board expects the October-November-December 2026 rainfall season to support the recovery of pasture and fodder, leading to improved milk production and supplies if weather conditions become favourable.
“The outlook for the October-November-December 2026 rainfall season is expected to support recovery in pasture and fodder availability, leading to improved milk production and supply as conditions become more favourable,” Maritim said.
The government is also implementing longer-term measures intended to strengthen dairy production and make the sector more resilient to weather-related shocks.
These include the procurement and distribution of milk coolers to improve aggregation and preservation, as well as support for dairy herd improvement through subsidised sexed semen.
Temporary shortage, says KDB
The Kenya Dairy Board says it is continuing to monitor milk production, formal deliveries to processors, market availability and retail prices while working with industry stakeholders to maintain supplies.
“KDB continues to monitor milk production, formal milk deliveries, market availability and retail prices and is working with industry stakeholders to support continuity of supply. Consumers and stakeholders are therefore reassured that the current situation is temporary,” Maritim said.
For consumers, however, the impact is already being felt in some shops through empty shelves, restricted purchases and rising prices for fresh milk.
