NAIROBI, Kenya — A new Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research survey has found that 76 per cent of Kenyans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, marking the highest level of dissatisfaction recorded during the polling firm’s tracking period.
The survey, released on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, found that only 15 per cent of respondents believe Kenya is moving in the right direction, while 8 per cent said the country is moving neither in the right nor wrong direction.
TIFA said dissatisfaction with the country’s direction rose from 68 per cent in November 2025 to 76 per cent in June 2026, making the latest figure the highest recorded in its tracking period.
“Dissatisfaction with the country’s direction has risen to 76pc in June 2026, the highest level recorded across the tracking period,” the survey stated.
The research firm said the 15 per cent who believe Kenya is moving in the right direction points to a “sustained and increasingly entrenched negative public mood.”
Mt Kenya records highest pessimism
Negative perceptions of the country’s direction were recorded across all nine regions covered by the survey, although the intensity varied.
Mt Kenya recorded the highest level of pessimism at 90 per cent, followed by Nairobi at 89 per cent, Lower Eastern at 83 per cent and South Rift at 82 per cent.
In Western, 77 per cent of respondents said the country was headed in the wrong direction, while Nyanza recorded 76 per cent.
At the Coast, 74 per cent said Kenya was moving in the wrong direction.
Northern Kenya recorded the highest proportion of respondents who believed the country was moving in the right direction, at 38 per cent, followed by Central Rift at 24 per cent.
Even in those regions, however, respondents with a positive view remained a minority.
Pessimism has risen sharply since 2023
TIFA’s tracking data shows that negative perceptions of Kenya’s direction have remained elevated over the past several years.
The proportion of respondents saying the country was headed in the wrong direction stood at:
- March 2023: 48 per cent
- May 2025: 75 per cent
- August/September 2025: 62 per cent
- November 2025: 68 per cent
- May 2026: 74 per cent
- June 2026: 76 per cent
The latest figure represents a significant increase from the 48 per cent recorded in March 2023 and marks the highest point in the tracking series.
The trend also shows that dissatisfaction, after easing in August/September 2025, subsequently increased again through late 2025 and the first half of 2026.
Economic hardship linked to negative outlook
The survey points to a strong relationship between Kenyans’ economic experiences and their assessment of the country’s direction.
TIFA found that 65 per cent of Kenyans said their personal or family economic situation had worsened since the 2022 General Election, compared with only 12 per cent who said their situation had improved.
The research firm said economic pressure remains entrenched and that any recovery has yet to be broadly felt at household level.
TIFA also found that 70 per cent of respondents identified economic issues as Kenya’s most serious problem.
Of those, 44 per cent cited unemployment and poverty, while 25 per cent pointed to inflation, high prices and high taxes.
“More than two-thirds of Kenyans (47pc + 23pc = 70pc) mentioned the economy as the country’s ‘most serious problem,” TIFA explained.
Corruption followed as another major concern, accounting for 19 per cent of mentions, while other issues received considerably fewer responses.
The research firm said the findings suggest that economic conditions are likely to remain a major political issue ahead of the 2027 General Election.
“With some two-thirds of Kenyans indicating a worsening of their economic situation, unless this changes over the next year, it could be challenging for all politicians seeking re-election, especially those identified with the incumbent government.”
Political divisions shape perceptions
TIFA’s findings also show that political alignment influences how Kenyans assess the country’s direction.
Among respondents who support the Broad-Based Government (BBG), 55 per cent said Kenya was headed in the wrong direction.
The figure rose to 88 per cent among respondents who oppose the BBG.
Among respondents who had no opinion or did not know about the BBG, 77 per cent said Kenya was moving in the wrong direction.
The survey further found a strong association between respondents’ economic experiences and their perceptions of the country’s direction.
Among those who believed Kenya was moving in the right direction, 39 per cent said their economic situation had improved since 2022.
That compared with only 7 per cent among those who believed the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Conversely, 75 per cent of respondents who said Kenya was moving in the wrong direction reported that their personal or family economic situation had worsened.
Among those who viewed the country’s direction positively, 25 per cent reported worsening economic circumstances.
TIFA concluded that economic conditions do not entirely determine Kenyans’ views of the country’s direction but “certainly play a major role.”
Survey covered all 47 counties
The findings are contained in TIFA’s second national survey release for 2026.
Fieldwork was conducted between June 13 and 22, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews with 2,048 randomly selected Kenyan adults aged 18 and above across all 47 counties.
The survey has a reported margin of error of ±2.18 per cent, with larger margins applying to smaller sub-samples.
Interviews were conducted mainly in Swahili and English across nine geographical zones.
TIFA cautioned that events occurring during or after the fieldwork period could affect public opinion if the same questions were asked again.
The research firm nevertheless said the findings accurately capture the situations and opinions of Kenyans at the time the survey was conducted.
