NAIROBI, Kenya — A majority of Kenyans do not support the broad-based government (BBG) formed by President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga, according to a new survey by TIFA Research.
The poll, conducted between May 2 and 6, reveals that 54 per cent of respondents oppose the political partnership between the two longtime rivals, while only 22 per cent express support.
Another 22 per cent declined to give an opinion, a silence researchers say could mask mixed or negative sentiments.
The BBG was established through a framework agreement signed on March 7, 2025, at the Kenya International Convention Centre, bringing together Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza and Odinga’s Azimio coalition.
Its stated aim is to address at least 10 critical national issues through a collaborative governance model.
But the TIFA poll suggests that Kenyans remain unconvinced — or at least deeply divided — about the political union.
Regional Rift in Support
Support for the BBG varies sharply by region. President Ruto’s Central Rift stronghold records the highest support at 37 per cent, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Mt. Kenya base and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Lower Eastern region show the weakest backing at just 13 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively.
In Raila Odinga’s Nyanza region, opposition to the BBG stands at 49 per cent, with 25 per cent supporting it — the third-highest regional support level.
TIFA analysts noted that this reflects Odinga’s “now-cordial relations with the Kenya Kwanza government and the presence of several senior ODM figures within it.”
Other regions show similarly lukewarm attitudes:
- Coast: 57% oppose, 22% support, 25% no opinion
- Western: 50% oppose, 21% support, 29% no opinion
- Mt. Kenya: 65% oppose, 13% support
- Lower Eastern: 64% oppose, 12% support
The survey sampled 2,024 respondents across nine regions and was conducted via telephone, using contacts obtained from earlier face-to-face interviews. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.17 per cent.
Political Gamble or National Unity?
The BBG has been framed by its architects as a path to political stability and consensus-building.
But critics argue it represents elite accommodation rather than meaningful reform — a perception the TIFA numbers seem to reinforce.
With both Ruto and Raila facing internal dissent from their respective bases, the BBG’s public legitimacy may depend less on elite declarations and more on visible outcomes in governance, service delivery, and inclusion.
