NAIROBI, Kenya- Prominent lawyer and President William Ruto ally Ahmednasir Abdullahi has delivered a blistering assessment of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)’s crushing defeat in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, arguing that the outcome was predictable from the outset and exposing what he described as deep political problems facing the ruling party ahead of the 2027 General Election.
In a lengthy analysis shared after the results were declared, Abdullahi said the only uncertainty before polling day was not whether UDA would lose, but by how wide a margin.
According to the Senior Counsel, political observers had expected the UDA candidate to secure between 25 and 35 per cent of the vote, enough to demonstrate that President Ruto still retained a significant support base in the Mt Kenya region.
Instead, the party garnered only about 13 per cent of the vote as the Rigathi Gachagua-led Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) swept to a landslide victory, a result he described as “an awful return” considering the enormous political and financial resources invested in the campaign.
“It was obvious from day one that the UDA candidate would be soundly beaten by Wamunyoro’s candidate. Only the margin was being debated,” Abdullahi wrote.
He said the outcome had shattered the narrative that the President still commands substantial political goodwill in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region.
‘Divorce’ Between Ruto and Kikuyu Voters
The Lawyer argued that the political fallout between President Ruto and a large section of the Kikuyu community formed the backdrop of UDA’s poor performance.
He said the by-election demonstrated that many voters in the region had shifted their allegiance, creating a hostile political environment for the ruling party.
While acknowledging that this was the dominant factor, he identified several other issues that, in his view, accelerated UDA’s defeat.
‘Goons and Violence Cost UDA Votes’
The lawyer singled out election-day violence as one of the biggest contributors to the party’s loss.
He argued that Kenyans have grown weary of political violence and strongly rejected what he termed the use of “goonism” to influence voters.
According to Ahmednasir, the deployment of violent groups during campaigns and on polling day only strengthened public resistance instead of intimidating voters.
“Kenya’s loathe violence unleashed on them and their homes by politicians enjoying state patronage,” he said.
He added that the country’s history had taught citizens that political violence inevitably leads to death, destruction and instability.
He further argued that Ol Kalou voters sent a powerful message that intimidation could not determine electoral outcomes.
“Ol Kalou voters strongly repudiated the thesis that voters can be forced by goons and other violent characters to vote for a preferred candidate,” he said.
He warned politicians that the continued use of violence and intimidation would only cost them votes in future elections.
Development Promises Failed
Ahmednasir also criticised what he described as UDA’s heavy reliance on development pledges during the campaign.
Throughout the campaign period, senior government officials traversed Ol Kalou announcing projects and distributing various items including gas cylinders, wheelbarrows, boats, electric poles and other government-backed initiatives.
According to the lawyer, voters viewed these gestures as election gimmicks rather than genuine development.
He questioned why essential services and infrastructure were being presented as political favours instead of constitutional entitlements.
“Surely aren’t these voters Kenyans entitled to development?” he posed.
He argued that many residents interpreted the promises as unrealistic and politically motivated, saying the strategy ultimately backfired.
According to Ahmednasir, the election demonstrated that voters could easily distinguish genuine development from campaign rhetoric.
Moses Kuria ‘Not the Right Salesman’
He also questioned UDA’s choice of leadership during the campaign, singling out former President Ruto’s Senior Economic Advisor Moses Kuria, who spearheaded much of the party’s campaign in Ol Kalou.
While describing Kuria as “a good man with many qualities,” the lawyer argued that he was not the most effective messenger for the constituency.
He said Kuria’s communication style, which he described as fast-paced and playful, resonated better in television interviews than in rural political rallies.
“A salesman speaks with a measured tone and seriousness. Moses speaks too fast and playfully for a rural audience like Ol Kalou,” he observed.
He further suggested that historical political dynamics between parts of Kiambu and Nyandarua may also have limited Kuria’s appeal among sections of the electorate.
2027 Political Reality
Perhaps the lawyer’s strongest message was directed at UDA’s broader political strategy heading into the 2027 General Election.
He argued that the ruling party was refusing to confront changing political realities, particularly in the Mt Kenya region.
According to him, many communities had already begun consolidating politically ahead of the next election, and ignoring those shifts would be costly.
He claimed that a significant section of the Kikuyu community, from former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua to former President Uhuru Kenyatta and ordinary supporters, had resolved to oppose President Ruto’s re-election bid.
“Our Kikuyu brothers… have said loud and clear that their sole agenda in 2027 is to send William Ruto to Sugoi,” he wrote.
Despite being a supporter of President Ruto, Ahmednasir said that political leaders must respect voters’ choices rather than dismiss or ignore them.
He concluded that the message from Ol Kalou was clear: the electorate wanted its democratic choice respected.
The remarks are significant because Ahmednasir has consistently been one of President Ruto’s most vocal public defenders.