NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenya has been ranked as the world’s second-most vulnerable democracy to election-related violence ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to the latest Electoral Vulnerability Index released by the Kofi Annan Foundation.
The report places Kenya behind only Nigeria among democracies considered to face the highest risk of electoral violence during the 2026–2027 election cycle, raising fresh concerns over the country’s political stability as campaigns begin to gather momentum.
According to the index, Kenya recorded a risk score of 43.9, with analysts projecting an 81.6 per cent likelihood of electoral violence during the 2027 polls.
The assessment further estimates a 75.4 per cent probability of moderate violence and a 6.2 per cent chance of severe violence, bringing the overall likelihood of some form of election-related violence to 84.1 per cent.
The findings come as political activity intensifies across the country, with parties accelerating coalition talks, campaign strategies and preparations for upcoming by-elections ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The Foundation warned that the findings highlight the need for early conflict prevention measures, stronger institutions and sustained dialogue among political actors to reduce the risk of violence before, during and after the elections.
Kenya’s position in the ranking also revives memories of the 2007–2008 post-election crisis, one of the darkest chapters in the country’s history.
The violence erupted after the disputed 2007 presidential election, in which the Electoral Commission declared former President Mwai Kibaki the winner over opposition leader Raila Odinga.
Allegations of electoral malpractice triggered widespread protests that quickly descended into violence across several regions.
More than 1,100 people were killed, while an estimated 600,000 others were displaced, with homes, businesses and public infrastructure destroyed in parts of the Rift Valley, Nairobi, Nyanza, Western and Coast regions.
The political crisis was eventually resolved through mediation led by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, culminating in the National Accord and Reconciliation Act of February 2008. The agreement established a Grand Coalition Government with Kibaki as President and Raila as Prime Minister.
In the years that followed, Kenya implemented far-reaching reforms, including the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution, restructuring of the electoral management body, judicial and police reforms, and the creation of institutions aimed at promoting national cohesion and preventing election-related conflict.
Despite those reforms, the latest Electoral Vulnerability Index indicates that significant challenges remain ahead of the next General Election.
The report is expected to renew calls for political leaders, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), security agencies, civil society groups and religious organisations to strengthen collaboration in safeguarding a peaceful, credible and transparent electoral process.
Globally, Nigeria topped the index with a risk score of 52.5 and a projected 90.5 per cent likelihood of electoral violence.
Kenya was followed by Fiji, Mongolia, Guatemala, Gambia, Armenia, Lesotho and Brazil among democracies identified as facing elevated electoral risks during upcoming elections.