NAIROBI, Kenya – Kenya could experience higher fuel and food prices in the coming weeks after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that rising global oil prices are increasing inflation risks for oil-importing economies across Africa.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF said countries that rely heavily on imported fuel, including Kenya, remain vulnerable to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed crude oil prices higher and heightened uncertainty in global markets.
The warning comes just days before the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announces its monthly fuel price review on July 14, a decision that will determine pump prices for Super Petrol, Diesel and Kerosene in Kenya.
According to the IMF, oil-importing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa are among the hardest hit by the latest energy price shock despite the region’s economic growth being projected at 4.3 per cent in 2026.
The lender cautioned that the economic effects of the conflict could persist, with higher energy costs expected to fuel inflation, weaken economic growth and increase pressure on household budgets.
The concerns were echoed in a joint statement issued by the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organisation following a high-level meeting on the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict.
“Uncertainty remains high, and the impacts of the war could linger,” the three institutions said.
Global crude oil prices have risen by about 5 per cent in recent weeks following renewed tensions involving the United States and Iran.
Brent crude—the benchmark used to price Kenya’s imported petroleum—has climbed above USD 76 (about Sh9,823) a barrel, marking its highest level since June 23.
The latest price increase followed U.S. military strikes on Iran after Washington accused Tehran of orchestrating attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Although the IMF noted that energy prices have eased from the peaks recorded earlier this year, it warned they remain well above pre-conflict levels.
Any further escalation in the Middle East, it said, could disrupt global supply chains, drive inflation higher and tighten global financial conditions.
The Fund projects global headline inflation will increase from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027, largely due to elevated food and energy prices.
The IMF, World Bank and WTO urged governments to strengthen energy and food security, safeguard global trade routes and enhance the resilience of vulnerable economies as geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on international markets.
For Kenya, sustained increases in international crude prices could directly influence the next EPRA pricing cycle since local pump prices are largely determined by global petroleum costs and exchange rate movements.
In its most recent review announced on June 14, EPRA set the maximum retail prices in Nairobi at Sh214.03 per litre for Super Petrol, Sh222.86 for Diesel and Sh191.38 for Kerosene.