President William Ruto is the most preferred candidate in the 2027 presidential race, according to a new Tifa Research poll that paints a picture of a fragmented and still-fluid political contest.
Respondents were asked: “Whether or not you have ever voted or intend to vote in the future, whom would you like to win the 2027 presidential election?” Participants were required to provide a single response.
The findings placed Ruto ahead with 24 per cent support among more than 2,000 respondents interviewed nationwide. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka ranked second with 19 per cent support, followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged fourth with 10 per cent support, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua followed with 9 per cent. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino registered 2 per cent support.
The survey also found that 15 per cent of respondents remain undecided on their preferred presidential candidate. Another 3 per cent selected “other” candidates, while a further 3 per cent gave no response.
According to the poll, the 2027 presidential race remains highly competitive, with no candidate enjoying overwhelming national support. The findings also suggest a divided opposition field, with support spread across several leaders rather than concentrated behind a single challenger.
The survey further explored ethnic political leadership, finding that fewer than half of Kenyans believe their ethnic community currently has a recognised political leader.
Among those who did identify a community leader, the Kamba community showed the highest level of agreement, with 93 per cent naming Kalonzo Musyoka. Among Kisii respondents, 83 per cent identified Fred Matiang’i as their leader.
Meanwhile, 73 per cent of Kalenjin respondents identified President Ruto as their political leader, while 70 per cent of Kikuyu respondents named Rigathi Gachagua.
Fieldwork for the survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews carried out mainly in Swahili and English. The nationally representative sample covered nine regions and involved 2,013 respondents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent.
